TriggeredTrades.co.uk

Dear Friend and Fellow Trader,

The risk I mentioned, of pushing up against the resistance levels and ENRC results (though very good), have come to pass short term.

The Markets have spoken, on the fear that China’s growth will drop from 8% to 7.5%. How significant is this? No-one really knows, the markets sometimes over-react and sometimes under-react, though fear is a stronger motivator than greed, psychologically optimism is more prevalent than you may think.

The Triggered Value Assets I suggested you look at, BLT, ENRC and RBS are all down on the price of the 19th March.    From a trading point of view, if you entered long on the 19th, you will have been stopped out at 2007p on BLT, 669p on ENRC and still be long in RBS.

Never the less, the FTSE, the DAX and the DOW are all still technically bullish from a daily and weekly and monthly point of view. Being a Friday, markets often soften as traders close out for the weekend, though you will have noticed they didnt last Friday.

I therefore suggest BLT, ENRC and RBS are still value candidates. BLT and ENRC are technically bear. RBS is technically bull. Warren Buffet famously said,  “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”.  You have to ask yourself, does this apply here?

These, having pulled back, represent better value now than they did a few days ago. Do your own research, there is always risk and there is always opportunity.

The thing is, if you have yet to invest your ISA stock assets, you have until 5th April to put your money into that little tax safe haven. For any longer term investing, you should be looking to place money into your ISA , and you should be looking for value assets. Warren Buffet also said, “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.” And this is the consideration for your long term ISA stocks or perhaps especially your SIPP stocks.

Wishing you happy and successful trading,

John

Terms and Conditions: See http://triggeredtrades.co.uk/smallprint/

Dear Friend and Fellow Trader

The FTSE 100 has briefly edged through its resistance levels of 5950 or so set a week ago, and is pushing up against the new resistance of its previous highs of 5990 or so again. Its next major resistance is 6100.

The weekly and daily charts have both been bullish since the end of December. More money (well over 100 billion) has been pushed/printed into the system since the end of December and it needs to go somewhere. Will it continue to feed into the stock market? Will the FTSE 100 break out higher still despite the talk of doom and gloom in some areas?

It seems to me valuations of many stocks are still very cheap relatively, and fear of the future is holding them back.

As I suggested two weeks ago in my video, BLT is very cheap, and I have longer term and short term holdings in that. Another two FTSE 100 assets has come up which are worth a look.

ENRC which is presently at a discount to 5 year average of between 30% and 90% (depending on which way you calculate it). The fundamentals analysis suggest a price of between 875p and 1050p. It is currently 684p.

RBS which is trading at a price to tangible net book value of 0.28, and a PE of 11.47 with a Yield of 3.94%, might be worth on fundamentals 1.5 to 3 times as much if/when stability returns to the banking sector?

Both these stocks have triggered long on Friday.

The risk on ENRC is the results due out later this week on Wednesday, which could swing the price either way, and in the light of recent history of results, even when the results have been great, the price of the asset has sometimes dropped, and conversely, when the results have been poor, the asset price has risen. Essentially, results time is risky. And the risk on RBS is the inherent risk in banking assets. And, as I said the FTSE 100 is pushing it’s upper resistance levels.

So, the choice is, as always, yours.

The Triggered Trades view is long on both on value, so far as one can tell from published results, and also triggered long on Friday with a price around Friday close and a stop under the 3-day low. I am currently long on ENRC both in my value account and in my trading account.

Wishing you happy and successful trading,

John

Terms and Conditions.  See http://triggeredtrades.co.uk/smallprint/

Just doing a little research, this is from the US Gov TreasuryDirect website date, (http://www.treasurydirect.gov), and shows the total US public Debt up til 30 Sep 2011.

It took 18 years from 1981 to 1999 to increase from $997,855,000,000 to $5,656,270,901,615 (~ $4,659,000,000,000).

It took three years from 2008-2011 to increase the same amount, and it has taken the last 3 months to increase 1/10th of that. (According to their figures, in the last 3 months the debt has increased by $432,599,716,894 to $15,222,940,045,451.)

This chart shows from Sep 1997… see how it is ‘relatively’ flat from 1997 to 2001. Hmmmmmmm…….. now what will the year bring?

Dear Friend and Fellow Trader,

All being well, you will have made good money during the last week. I had some of my best days ever with the moves up on the stocks suggested on the 27th November.

The FTSE 100 is now in a bullish trend within an overall bearish market.

It has held over 5410 for three days, which is a good sign, yet there must still be careful stop management because we are still overall bearish.

On the one year chart we are testing the 200 ema as a potential resistance, and technically we have not had a higher high. Often there is a pre-xmas rally, and we may be seeing that.

 
The risk is we may be at the top end of a potential Bear Flag. And, if that was so, unlikely as it may seem, we might see a drop back to around 4500-4250.

Be careful with your money, despite the apparent long term value out there. The world markets are so risky and unpredictable at this juncture, I have closed out around 40% of my portfolio on Friday, and will be managing tight stops over the days to come. I am not suggesting any triggered trades today.

As always, do your own research.

Wishing you happy and successful trading,

John

John Cato

Terms and Conditions
See http://triggeredtrades.co.uk/smallprint/

Dear friend and fellow trader,

Further to my email on Friday, I will be sending subscribers a more detailed update on the value stocks mentioned.

Watch this space,

Warm regards

John

John Cato
Terms and Conditions; See http://triggeredtrades.co.uk/smallprint/

Dear Friend and fellow trader,

My value trades filters are picking up
BLT
XTA
VED
ECM
MGCR
E2V
IGG

As ever, do your own research, and I will summarise these stocks over the weekend.

warm regards and good wealth, health and happiness to you,

John

John Cato
Terms and Conditions; See http://triggeredtrades.co.uk/smallprint/

Dear Friend and fellow trader,

My caution around the FTSE has now been realised, and the two trades we placed on Monday the 1st were taken out almost immediately.

Also, the suggestion I made on the 19th June of a pull back to around 5420 within the next month or two have been realised, with last nights close below 5400. This morning the futures look no better, with a opening market price indicated around 5270, even lower still. It may be these falls will prove overdone.

No trades are triggered, and the chances are, if you have closed trades on signs of weakness, you will now be in cash. The triggered trades system have no trades suggested, though value investors may find stocks of value.

warm regards and good wealth, health and happiness to you,

John

John Cato
Terms and Conditions; See http://triggeredtrades.co.uk/smallprint/

Dear friend and fellow trader

Once again, the FTSE 100 is still looking lack lustre, largely tracking sideways.

There have been a few sectors holding up, such as Automobiles and Parts, Electronic and Electrical Equipment, and Personal Goods, and you would have seen profits there, however, most sectors have been flat or bearish. The main bearish sectors have included Banks, Construction and Materials, Food and Drug Retailers, General Retailers, Industrial Metals and Life Insurance.

The drop in Industrial Metals may be overdone, largely lead by Talvivaara Mining. If you are interested in taking positions in Industrial Metals, an equal share of Ferrexpo and Talvivaara would be advantageous at this time, both of which have shown a move on Friday against the overall market, with bullish engulfing price action. Tight stops on both are suggested, of 440 and 395 respectively, buying below Fridays closing price of 462.5 and 429.6 respectively.

Again, I don’t think the market is very positive and it is still time to bank profits on any extant holdings at any signs of weakness.

Wishing you warm regards and good trading to you

John

John Cato
Terms and Conditions; See http://triggeredtrades.co.uk/smallprint/

Dear Friend and fellow trader,

I was concerned a few days ago the FTSE 100 may pullback, and it has.

Today, the FTSE closed up at 5906, yet after the bell has pulled back again and is currently indicating an open in the morning of around 5830-5840.

So, despite a number of buying opportunities, it is still time to be cautious, taking profits on any sign of weakness

Warm regards, and good trading

John Cato